Realtor.com’s top 10 housing markets for 2021 have substantial momentum from 2020 which they will carry into 2021. Still low mortgage rates throughout most of the year help these markets see price and sales growth on top of 2020’s high levels. Economic momentum from the thriving tech industry, coupled with healthier levels of supply, will position these markets for growth in 2021. This past year, we’ve all become more reliant on technology to work, learn, and maintain personal connections. The technology hubs that make this possible are thriving, as are their housing markets. Additionally, the relative stability of government jobs in the past year has driven home prices and sales in several state capitals to the top. Home buyers, particularly younger first-time buyers, looking in one of these markets should expect rising prices and heavy competition. Meanwhile, sellers will remain in a position of power, but will find themselves on the other side of the bargaining table when buying their next home.
Top 10 Housing Markets Positioned for Growth in 2021
|Rank*||Metro||2021 Sales Growth % y/y||2021 Price Growth % y/y||Combined Growth|
|2||San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.||10.8%||10.8%||21.6%|
|4||Boise City, Idaho||9.8%||9.1%||18.9%|
|8||Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, Calif.||12.5%||5.5%||18.0%|
|10||Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif.||12.4%||5.5%||17.9%|
Ranking is based on the combined yearly percentage growth in both home sales and prices expected in 2021 among the top 100 largest markets in the country per realtor.com’s metro level housing forecast. In cases of a tie, Sales Growth y/y was used as a tiebreaker.
A common driver of this year’s top markets is the prevalence of high paying tech jobs. Tech salaries in Sacramento, San Jose, Boise, Denver, and Seattle have driven home prices through the roof over the last several years and this trend is expected to continue in 2021. Additionally, areas such as Charlotte and Phoenix are quickly establishing themselves as rising tech hubs with a plethora of jobs in technology, as well as education, government and healthcare. In fact, the projected unemployment rate for 2021’s top markets is 7.9% compared to the national average of 8.2%. Tech-related jobs make up an average of 8.7% of the workforce in this year’s top markets list compared to 6.4% of the U.S. as a whole.
The top markets in 2021 aren’t cheap. In fact, home prices in eight of the top 10 markets are more expensive than the average of the top 100 markets. But many are relatively affordable when compared to their nearby counterparts or offer significantly more square footage for a similar price. For example, buyers priced out of New York ($216 per sq.ft.) can find increased space and affordability in Harrisburg ($122 per sq.ft.), while buyers in Sacramento ($284 per sq.ft.) can get more bang for their buck than nearby San Francisco ($679 per sq.ft.). This is also true when comparing Oxnard ($413 per sq.ft.) and Riverside ($247 per sq.ft.) with Los Angeles ($556 per sq.ft.).
Home to Younger Households
On average, the top 10 markets have a larger share of younger households, aged 25 to 34, (14.1%) than the U.S. as a whole (13.5%). A market’s ability to lure millennials is a good indicator of the livability of the area including: job opportunities, dining, and entertainment. However, when it comes to millennials purchasing homes in the top 10, two trends are emerging. In half of this year’s top markets, including: Charlotte, Boise, Phoenix, Harrisburg and Riverside, millennials are already homeowners and expected to make the majority of the home purchases that drive home price growth and sales. In the other group of markets, such as San Jose, Seattle, and Denver, the high cost of living has made homeownership a difficult accomplishment, not only for millennials but for all generations. The high number of millennials in the market shows how popular these markets have become, but older, more financially established generations will be the ones purchasing the majority of the homes next year.
Half of the top markets are state capitals, including: Sacramento, Boise, Phoenix, Harrisburg and Denver. The strong government presence in these areas offers stability for their local economy and jobs markets. This is especially important after a year when a global pandemic has significantly disrupted local economies across the nation. On top of the government jobs, these areas also have strong job diversity in both the public and private sectors, including education, healthcare, technology, manufacturing and military, which is positioning them for solid growth in the future. The average GDP growth rate for the top markets is forecasted to be 5.34% in 2021, versus 4.85% for the top 100 metros.
Key Stats for Top 10 Housing Markets in 2021
|Top 10 Markets (Avg)||Largest 100 Markets (Avg)|
|Sales % Change YoY 2021 (projected)||+13.1%||+6.8%|
|Price % Change YoY 2021 (projected)||+6.9%||+4.7%|
|Median List Price 2020||$586,200||$371,500|
|Median List Price YoY 2019||+7.6%||+4.3%|
|Households YoY 2021 (projected)||+0.98%||+0.53%|